Wagner Group Insurrection Shows Weaknesses in Russian Government

This past weekend, the Russian government experienced the most direct challenge to its rule since the fall of Soviet Union in 1991 when the head of the mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, took control of some Russian cities and ordered his troops to advance towards Moscow. The advance was called off after Prigozhin agreed to an agreement brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, with the Wagner Group withdrawing from occupied cities and the criminal charges against Prigozhin dropped.

The Wagner Group is a private military company (PMC) that since 2014 has operated closely with the Russian government and other governments in operations across the world, from the Central African Republic to Syria to Venezuela. Wagner troops have been heavily involved in the war in Ukraine, with some troops suspected of committing war crimes in the course of the war. Prigozhin is known for recruiting from prisons to fill his ranks, with the promise of amnesty after a six-month deployment.

Prigozhin had long been one of Putin’s closest associates, originally heading a catering company with a number of government and military contracts. Since then, he has transformed Wagner Group into a military juggernaut, which this weekend challenged the Russian military for dominance. Prigozhin has for months expressed frustration with the leadership of the Russian military, claiming they have mishandled the war and failed to provide his troops ammunition.

While the attempted rebellion failed to take control of the Russian government or depose top military leaders, it was the greatest internal challenge to Putin’s rule since he first took power in 2000.

 

Russia's War in Ukraine Continues

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has completed its first month, and while President Vladimir Putin’s forces have failed to take Ukraine’s capital Kyiv or its second largest city Kharkiv, Russian forces have taken large areas of Ukraine's southeast. Russia so far has captured few large cities and has encountered fierce resistance throughout the country.

Meanwhile, sanctions from Western countries continue to affect Russia’s economy, preventing it from easily selling its exports, including oil and food.

The current state of the war is much different from the consensus just before the war started, that the Russian military would be able to relatively quickly topple the Ukrainian government and control large swaths of territory. Any hope for a Ukrainian victory would likely lie in a long-term insurgency similar to Afghanistan in the aftermath of the Soviet invasion in the 1980s. Rather, the strong Ukrainian resistance has kept the government in power and prevented the seizure of many large cities, even though Russia has managed to control territory along the border and in the east and south of the country.

Putin’s actions in Ukraine have been characterized as war crimes given his military’s targeting of civilian neighborhoods. Russia’s attacks on civilian neighborhoods represent a dark turn in the conflict as following their failure to occupy most of Ukraine's major cities.

Russia last week announced they will shift focus to the eastern front, where Russia has been helping separatists since 2014 fight to remove Ukrainian control. Western nations have responded incredulously to the statement, skeptical of whether Russia will actually shift focus or will try a new offensive to capture Kyiv and other major cities.

 

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Continues as Western Countries Respond with Sanctions, Aid

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his country’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine last week, capping months of speculation over whether Russia would invade Ukraine, and if so, to what extent. The invasion is a large-scale manuever, with Russian troops advancing into Ukraine along its borders with Russia and Belarus, a key Russian ally.

The first days of the invasion have seen Russia take over sections of the country, though Russia has failed to establish air superiority over the country’s air space even after strikes aimed to take out Ukraine's air defenses on the first day. No major cities have been taken yet, though both sides have engaged in heavy fighting in the capital and largest city Kiev as well as Ukraine’s second largest city Kharkiv. Both cities are close to the borders of Belarus and Russia respectively and are vulnerable to Russian attacks. 

Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky has vowed to remain in Kiev while fighting for control of the capital continues. He has posted videos on social media in attempts to boost morale at home as well as garner support from international audiences.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has encouraged Ukrainian soldiers to stage a coup against the Zelensky government, calling them ‘drug addicts’ and ‘neo-Nazis,’ and claimed that reaching a peace between Russia and a replacement government will be easier. Such a peace would likely entail Russian suzerainty over Ukraine and the possible cession of lands in the eastern part of Ukraine.

While the consensus has been that Ukraine will eventually fall to Russia should Russia use the full force of its conventional forces to take over the country, some observers have remarked positively on the strength of the Ukrainian resistance to the invasion, which has prevented the capture of any major cities thus far and prevented the capture of a critical airfield near Kiev.

Western countries have been providing Ukraine with military aid and intelligence both prior to and during the Russian invasion. The US and European Union have announced additional sanctions against Russia, as well as removing certain Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system, which allows international financial transactions to occur.

Russian Troops Loom on Ukrainian Border as Invasion Threat Continues

As thousands of Russian troops remain stationed threateningly close to Ukraine’s border, Western countries have tried to convince Russia to back off its threats of moving troops into the country. Russian President Vladimir Putin has counteroffered that NATO refuse any new members, a non-starter for the alliance.

NATO leaders are making trips to Kiev, Ukraine’s capital, including the prime ministers of the UK, the Netherlands, and Poland. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who himself has clashed with many Western leaders during his time in power, will also visit Kiev.

Germany, the largest economy in NATO after the US, has so far been tepid in its support of Ukraine, refraining from sending weapons while other NATO countries have done so. Germany is currently working with Russia to complete the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany. Some in the US government have threatened sanctions over the pipeline, though such sanctions have been opposed, most notably by President Joe Biden, over concerns such measures could weaken the relationship between the US and Germany.

Russia currently is supporting an armed rebellion in eastern Ukraine, where ethnic Russian separatists are trying to break away from the government in Kiev. Russia also controls the Crimean Peninsula, considered by most countries as still part of Ukraine.

Russia fears Ukraine falling further into the West’s orbit as popular opinion in Ukraine has turned strongly against Russia since the 2014 revolution which toppled pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich and prompted Russia to take over Crimea.

 

Impeachment Inquiry Testimonies Begin

This month saw the first public testimonies from officials involved in the controversy over President Trump’s phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this year, with House Democrats hoping to implicate President Trump in an alleged attempt to pressure the Ukrainian government to investigate Hunter Biden, Joe Biden’s son, in exchange for foreign aid. The alleged request by Trump was to look into Biden’s involvement in a Ukrainian oil company during his father’s vice presidency and the dismissal of a prosecutor supposedly investigating the company. While Hunter Biden had no previous experience in oil and gas, no wrongdoing by Biden has yet been uncovered, and the dismissal of the prosecutor has been linked to the prosecutor’s own previous corruption.

Trump has denied any wrongdoing in making the call, dismissing claims of a quid pro quo in which American aid would only be released if the investigation into Biden’s conduct began. While the foreign aid did go through, it may have only gone through after a complaint was filed by a whistleblower documenting concerns with Trump’s request. It does not prove, however, that the aid would not have been delivered otherwise.

Most witnesses, including former acting Ukrainian Ambassador Bill Taylor, have said that they received the impression that a quid pro quo existed, though they based that on information from second-hand sources, not from the president himself. US Ambassador to the EU, Gordon Sondland, said that members of the Trump cabinet knew about the request, including Vice President Mike Pence and acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney.

House Launches Impeachment Inquiry

fter months of resistance to pleas from vocal members of her caucus, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) announced last week that she would open an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump’s conduct. While many Democrats have called for impeachment proceedings in the past (soon after his inauguration), the event that sparked the latest round of calls relates to Trump’s call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his plea for him to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter Biden’s business and political actions in the country, a request that is politically salient given Joe Biden’s candidacy for president, in which he hopes to face Trump in November 2020.

The story broke earlier this month when a whistleblower released information about the contents of Trump’s call, which led to sharp criticism, mostly form Democrats but with a few Republicans joining in condemning the president’s action. After Pelosi initiated the impeachment inquiry on September 24th, the White House released a transcript of the call (which was not a verbatim copy, but rather a series of notes and recollections from other listeners) with Zelensky, which confirmed Trump cited Biden as an example of corruption in Ukraine.

In addition, Trump withheld $400 million in military aid to Ukraine prior to the call. Democrats have said the aide was withheld to be used as a bargaining chip to force Zelensky’s hand to investigate Biden; the White House says interagency disagreements led to its delay in disbursement.

Going forward, House Democrats will hold hearings on Trump over his conduct, with many Democrats hoping that it will lead to an impeachment vote. If successful, the Senate will decide whether to remove the president.